Sunday Homework

No real direction. Bulls need to prove themselves by taking 3640ish and bears need 3500. We are just ranging until that happens. The 5 minute is a bit interesting. Why did that 3542ish area hold? That should have been really week and fallen down to 3500.

ES 4 hour chart

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ES 5 minute chart

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4 Hour ES Chart

Possible head and shoulders on this timeframe. I know it’s not a “true” H&S but it gives us something to think about. Bulls need this over that right neckline with energy so a 1 tic of 3565 probably won’t do it, but a break of 70 to 75 might. A breakdown of the right shoulder should take you to the middle of the left shoulder and possible the bottom

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Sunday Homework

Someone asked me on Friday for some comments on the SPX or S&P500 cash charts.

We are basically in a range from 3200 to 3590. Call it 32-3600 or about 400 handles. a break of the range should move about 1/2 the distance of the range. So, a break above should take price to 3700. That is the strategic area I would look to be thinking of taking shorts. A breakdown should take us down to the 3200 area. That is also the 200 EMA and I would be comfortable thinking of longs near that area.

The 50 % move, if you wanted to join the ramp up for the last few days would be to buy the 3400. Tactically, that area would be an interesting buy with a stop under the .618 area.

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Swing Update 4

This is my current swing position. I have one left with a stop in place. Many people have asked me when am I going to take off that single car. This is the Dec contract so either when we make new highs, it hits that stop at plus 10ish or I have to close it because the contract is expiring. The entire point of a runner is to let it run. I have already made enough off this trade. Let’s see what happens. One of these days I will have a swing with a +500 handles. The logic for the trade has passed. $nymo is no longer -80+ it’s back to 0 so the market has done what I expected it to do. Now I am just gilding the lily so to speak.

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