Hedge update 4

Just to recap I am currently short a total of 400 S&P500 November 20,2020 360 calls and long the 270 puts for the same day. My current credit is $1.43 per contract for a total collection of $57,200 (1.43x100X400) This is a hedge against my long term portfolio holdings. The market MAY just go higher. It sure seems like it wants to shrug everything off right now.

The position only goes up in value if the market pulls back like 10% of more. My risk is if we get over SPY 360. I thought that was a very low risk at the time I put that hedge on and still think it’s a bit of a stretch, but boy it can feel uncomfortable. TOS is showing this position pricing about $3.07 so am down $65600 (-1.64x100x400) minus the original collection. So I am currently down around $65K in this hedge.

The math says that my statistical chance of 360 being in the money on Nov 20th is about %37. It was only about 6% when I first wrote this position.

This is the uncomfortable side of trading. I have committed enough capital to this hedge. I have no more plans on adding to the position. It’s a hedge. Let it protect my long term portfolio

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