4 Hour ES Chart

Possible head and shoulders on this timeframe. I know it’s not a “true” H&S but it gives us something to think about. Bulls need this over that right neckline with energy so a 1 tic of 3565 probably won’t do it, but a break of 70 to 75 might. A breakdown of the right shoulder should take you to the middle of the left shoulder and possible the bottom

ES 12-20 (240 Min)  11_10_2020.jpg

Swing Update 4

This is my current swing position. I have one left with a stop in place. Many people have asked me when am I going to take off that single car. This is the Dec contract so either when we make new highs, it hits that stop at plus 10ish or I have to close it because the contract is expiring. The entire point of a runner is to let it run. I have already made enough off this trade. Let’s see what happens. One of these days I will have a swing with a +500 handles. The logic for the trade has passed. $nymo is no longer -80+ it’s back to 0 so the market has done what I expected it to do. Now I am just gilding the lily so to speak.

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Swing ES Futures

I have started a swing in the futures. The daily SPX stochs are oversold and I think we a good chance a bounce. Currently long 2 at 3267.75 and will add 2 every 20 handles down to a max size of 30 contracts. Will try to get one off in front of that naked TPOC around 3366ish

ES 12-20 (30 Min)  10_28_2020.jpg
ES S&P 500 Emini 24 hour TPO and Volume profile chart

SPX Cash

This is a cash chart of the S&P 500 index. That blue line in the middle panel is the McClellonOscillator or $nymo When that number gets to +100 or -100 you should not be trading against that direction. You look for a reinforcing mechanism.

The bottom panel is Stochastics. Those are oversold. You should not be looking to short when that is happen AND $nymo is near 100. $nymo was plotting -100 intraday yesterday. It did not close on that low, but it was close enough

SPX_Cash.png

I was clued into this by Prolongwealth years ago at DayTradingRadio he has his own YouTube channel now.

Hedge update 4

Just to recap I am currently short a total of 400 S&P500 November 20,2020 360 calls and long the 270 puts for the same day. My current credit is $1.43 per contract for a total collection of $57,200 (1.43x100X400) This is a hedge against my long term portfolio holdings. The market MAY just go higher. It sure seems like it wants to shrug everything off right now.

The position only goes up in value if the market pulls back like 10% of more. My risk is if we get over SPY 360. I thought that was a very low risk at the time I put that hedge on and still think it’s a bit of a stretch, but boy it can feel uncomfortable. TOS is showing this position pricing about $3.07 so am down $65600 (-1.64x100x400) minus the original collection. So I am currently down around $65K in this hedge.

The math says that my statistical chance of 360 being in the money on Nov 20th is about %37. It was only about 6% when I first wrote this position.

This is the uncomfortable side of trading. I have committed enough capital to this hedge. I have no more plans on adding to the position. It’s a hedge. Let it protect my long term portfolio