No real direction. Bulls need to prove themselves by taking 3640ish and bears need 3500. We are just ranging until that happens. The 5 minute is a bit interesting. Why did that 3542ish area hold? That should have been really week and fallen down to 3500.
Someone asked me on Friday for some comments on the SPX or S&P500 cash charts.
We are basically in a range from 3200 to 3590. Call it 32-3600 or about 400 handles. a break of the range should move about 1/2 the distance of the range. So, a break above should take price to 3700. That is the strategic area I would look to be thinking of taking shorts. A breakdown should take us down to the 3200 area. That is also the 200 EMA and I would be comfortable thinking of longs near that area.
The 50 % move, if you wanted to join the ramp up for the last few days would be to buy the 3400. Tactically, that area would be an interesting buy with a stop under the .618 area.
The bulls cleared the neckline of an inverse H&S on the 4 hour and tested the scene of the crime of the last selloff on that time frame. They tested and it failed to hold into the close. I was away from my desk so do not know if that was news based, but it was an ugly closing candle on the daily for bulls. The stocks are still overbought on the daily and bulls really need to clear 3511 to change the short term trend.
I would feel comfortable going long near 3420 and you have stuck longs around 3481ish that shoulder offer resistance on any rally.
Just have to see how it opens in a few hours. That 3420 trade is null if the bears take 3412 and that might be too much risk for some. Use your own judgement.
This is pretty simple. The ES is going to 3550. That is the area you might consider shorting. That is invalid when 3580 prints. This is an uptrend. Look to join. There are some stuck shorts 3429ish. I sold Oct 15 3550/3555 ES bearsih call spreads on Friday. I will probably take heat on those this weak.
That was a pretty good news based selloff on Friday with a good recovery for the bulls. The daily ES and SPX have gotten back to almost overbought again on the stochastics. The bulls need to take 3421ish to really change things. I think the bears should be happy if they can hold price under 3400 next week. One diaper close by on the 5. See how it opens tonight. There is nothing really decisive going on for bulls or bears with these patterns.
That was a pretty bullish day and close on Friday. The market is still in this correction inside of a secular bull market. Bulls need above 3422ish to really start thinking about changing the trends. Looks like some stuck shorts in the 3221ish area. Four hour now has a set of three nice points on a downward trend line.
The daily is oversold with double bottom buy divergence. The five minute you could probably sell the 59/60 area with a stop at 83. The next diaper is way up around 3399 and 3400 would probably pull price higher
I am still in the penalty box for that loss on that hedge until Tuesday, but I will put up some quick thoughts. Bears got a win on Thursday and tried to get it to continue into Friday. Bulls stepped in around the 3350 level which was about 6.75% off the high from Wednesday of 3590. I still think the market is overall bullish over 3317. However, it’s up to the bulls to prove themselves. This is short the pops until price gets back over 3490 or so. There are stuck longs around 3550 that need to get resolved at some point. You also have a naked TPO HVN on the 24 hour node around 3450ish. Nothing jumping out saying do something here. All the diapers on the 5 minute are played out.