Took 3 off for 50 handles. Still holding 3. This i s just to lighten up before the show tomorrow
Now holding 6
I have started a swing in the futures. The daily SPX stochs are oversold and I think we a good chance a bounce. Currently long 2 at 3267.75 and will add 2 every 20 handles down to a max size of 30 contracts. Will try to get one off in front of that naked TPOC around 3366ish
Feeling lazy today. Nothing really got accomplished on Friday. We are in a range from 3400 to 3470ish.. Bulls need a 3475 and bears need to get it under 3400.
We are getting to the top of that downward channel on the 4 hour. We should break higher or rotate down to 3380ish
The bulls cleared the neckline of an inverse H&S on the 4 hour and tested the scene of the crime of the last selloff on that time frame. They tested and it failed to hold into the close. I was away from my desk so do not know if that was news based, but it was an ugly closing candle on the daily for bulls. The stocks are still overbought on the daily and bulls really need to clear 3511 to change the short term trend.
I would feel comfortable going long near 3420 and you have stuck longs around 3481ish that shoulder offer resistance on any rally.
Just have to see how it opens in a few hours. That 3420 trade is null if the bears take 3412 and that might be too much risk for some. Use your own judgement.
ES 4 hour
ES five minute
This is pretty simple. The ES is going to 3550. That is the area you might consider shorting. That is invalid when 3580 prints. This is an uptrend. Look to join. There are some stuck shorts 3429ish. I sold Oct 15 3550/3555 ES bearsih call spreads on Friday. I will probably take heat on those this weak.
Daily ES Futures Chart
That was a pretty good news based selloff on Friday with a good recovery for the bulls. The daily ES and SPX have gotten back to almost overbought again on the stochastics. The bulls need to take 3421ish to really change things. I think the bears should be happy if they can hold price under 3400 next week. One diaper close by on the 5. See how it opens tonight. There is nothing really decisive going on for bulls or bears with these patterns.
ES Emini 5-minute chart
ES Emini 4 hour chart
ES Emini Daily Chart
That was a pretty bullish day and close on Friday. The market is still in this correction inside of a secular bull market. Bulls need above 3422ish to really start thinking about changing the trends. Looks like some stuck shorts in the 3221ish area. Four hour now has a set of three nice points on a downward trend line.
ES 5 Minutes
ES 4 Hour
This is a cash chart of the S&P 500 index. That blue line in the middle panel is the McClellonOscillator or $nymo When that number gets to +100 or -100 you should not be trading against that direction. You look for a reinforcing mechanism.
The bottom panel is Stochastics. Those are oversold. You should not be looking to short when that is happen AND $nymo is near 100. $nymo was plotting -100 intraday yesterday. It did not close on that low, but it was close enough
The daily is oversold with double bottom buy divergence. The five minute you could probably sell the 59/60 area with a stop at 83. The next diaper is way up around 3399 and 3400 would probably pull price higher
Daily ES chart