Sunday Homework

The bulls cleared the neckline of an inverse H&S on the 4 hour and tested the scene of the crime of the last selloff on that time frame. They tested and it failed to hold into the close. I was away from my desk so do not know if that was news based, but it was an ugly closing candle on the daily for bulls. The stocks are still overbought on the daily and bulls really need to clear 3511 to change the short term trend.

I would feel comfortable going long near 3420 and you have stuck longs around 3481ish that shoulder offer resistance on any rally.

Just have to see how it opens in a few hours. That 3420 trade is null if the bears take 3412 and that might be too much risk for some. Use your own judgement.

ES daily

ES 12-20 (Daily)  7_23_2020 - 10_16_2020.jpg
S&P 500 Emini Futures Daily Chart

ES 4 hour

ES 12-20 (240 Min)  10_16_2020.jpg

ES five minute

ES 12-20 (5 Min)  10_16_2020.jpg

Sunday Homework

That was a pretty good news based selloff on Friday with a good recovery for the bulls. The daily ES and SPX have gotten back to almost overbought again on the stochastics. The bulls need to take 3421ish to really change things. I think the bears should be happy if they can hold price under 3400 next week. One diaper close by on the 5. See how it opens tonight. There is nothing really decisive going on for bulls or bears with these patterns.

ES Emini 5-minute chart

ES 12-20 (5 Min)  10_2_2020.jpg

ES Emini 4 hour chart

ES 12-20 (240 Min)  10_2_2020.jpg

ES Emini Daily Chart

ES 12-20 (Daily)  7_21_2020 - 10_2_2020.jpg

Sunday Homework

That was a pretty bullish day and close on Friday. The market is still in this correction inside of a secular bull market. Bulls need above 3422ish to really start thinking about changing the trends. Looks like some stuck shorts in the 3221ish area. Four hour now has a set of three nice points on a downward trend line.

ES 5 Minutes

ES 12-20 (5 Min)  9_25_2020.jpg

ES 4 Hour

ES 12-20 (240 Min)  9_25_2020.jpg

ES Daily

ES 12-20 (Daily)  7_14_2020 - 9_25_2020.jpg

Sunday Homework

The daily is oversold with double bottom buy divergence. The five minute you could probably sell the 59/60 area with a stop at 83. The next diaper is way up around 3399 and 3400 would probably pull price higher

Daily ES chart

ES 12-20 (Daily)  6_1_2020 - 9_18_2020.jpg

Sunday Homework

Bull stampede. The market is up basically 5% in 10 days. That’s not bearish. It is also not an area I want to be buying. The first goal for the bears is back under 3490ish then hope for 3455 and 3448. We are still overall bullish over 3317. That area would be about a 6$ pullback from price now.

I like a shot at joining the bull run around 3455 and 3448 and would consider that until 33400 broke. Hold the trend line on four hour chart and we can get to 3560ish

ES Emini S&P 500 Sept 2020 Four hour chart

ES 09-20 (240 Min)  8_28_2020.jpg

ES Emini S&P 500 Sept 2020 dailychart

ES 09-20 (Daily)  4_29_2020 - 8_28_2020.jpg

Sunday Homework

The bears are very much in control and the media has done it’s job of scaring the public. This is still very much short the pops . However, that close on Friday was very interesting.

Nothing is really jumping out saying “do something” However, $nymo is -100 and daily stochastics are oversold It will be interesting to see how long that last.

Daily ES chart

ES 03-20 (1440 Min)  2_29_2020.jpg

This chart is YEARLY volume profile. The pink line is most traded volume for the year. I am not a year trader. I find this interesting to look at as a study in why prices stop sometimes.

ES 03-20 (30 Min)  2_28_2020yearlyprofiles.jpg