Sunday Homework

No real direction. Bulls need to prove themselves by taking 3640ish and bears need 3500. We are just ranging until that happens. The 5 minute is a bit interesting. Why did that 3542ish area hold? That should have been really week and fallen down to 3500.

ES 4 hour chart

ES 12-20 (240 Min)  11_20_2020.jpg

ES 5 minute chart

ES 12-20 (5 Min)  11_20_2020.jpg

Sunday Homework

Someone asked me on Friday for some comments on the SPX or S&P500 cash charts.

We are basically in a range from 3200 to 3590. Call it 32-3600 or about 400 handles. a break of the range should move about 1/2 the distance of the range. So, a break above should take price to 3700. That is the strategic area I would look to be thinking of taking shorts. A breakdown should take us down to the 3200 area. That is also the 200 EMA and I would be comfortable thinking of longs near that area.

The 50 % move, if you wanted to join the ramp up for the last few days would be to buy the 3400. Tactically, that area would be an interesting buy with a stop under the .618 area.

SP500DailyCash11082020.jpg

Swing Update 4

This is my current swing position. I have one left with a stop in place. Many people have asked me when am I going to take off that single car. This is the Dec contract so either when we make new highs, it hits that stop at plus 10ish or I have to close it because the contract is expiring. The entire point of a runner is to let it run. I have already made enough off this trade. Let’s see what happens. One of these days I will have a swing with a +500 handles. The logic for the trade has passed. $nymo is no longer -80+ it’s back to 0 so the market has done what I expected it to do. Now I am just gilding the lily so to speak.

11042020.jpg

Swing ES Futures

I have started a swing in the futures. The daily SPX stochs are oversold and I think we a good chance a bounce. Currently long 2 at 3267.75 and will add 2 every 20 handles down to a max size of 30 contracts. Will try to get one off in front of that naked TPOC around 3366ish

ES 12-20 (30 Min)  10_28_2020.jpg
ES S&P 500 Emini 24 hour TPO and Volume profile chart

Sunday Homework

The bulls cleared the neckline of an inverse H&S on the 4 hour and tested the scene of the crime of the last selloff on that time frame. They tested and it failed to hold into the close. I was away from my desk so do not know if that was news based, but it was an ugly closing candle on the daily for bulls. The stocks are still overbought on the daily and bulls really need to clear 3511 to change the short term trend.

I would feel comfortable going long near 3420 and you have stuck longs around 3481ish that shoulder offer resistance on any rally.

Just have to see how it opens in a few hours. That 3420 trade is null if the bears take 3412 and that might be too much risk for some. Use your own judgement.

ES daily

ES 12-20 (Daily)  7_23_2020 - 10_16_2020.jpg
S&P 500 Emini Futures Daily Chart

ES 4 hour

ES 12-20 (240 Min)  10_16_2020.jpg

ES five minute

ES 12-20 (5 Min)  10_16_2020.jpg

Sunday Homework

That was a pretty good news based selloff on Friday with a good recovery for the bulls. The daily ES and SPX have gotten back to almost overbought again on the stochastics. The bulls need to take 3421ish to really change things. I think the bears should be happy if they can hold price under 3400 next week. One diaper close by on the 5. See how it opens tonight. There is nothing really decisive going on for bulls or bears with these patterns.

ES Emini 5-minute chart

ES 12-20 (5 Min)  10_2_2020.jpg

ES Emini 4 hour chart

ES 12-20 (240 Min)  10_2_2020.jpg

ES Emini Daily Chart

ES 12-20 (Daily)  7_21_2020 - 10_2_2020.jpg